General Election Update

What Does the Data Say?

Folks, I thought it would be a great idea to bring you into my world and lay out what I look for in terms of data that can tell us what to expect on Election Day.

We’ve now passed the very necessary one month window since The Switch and although technically week one of the general will be the week coming out of Labor Day, the election is beginning to take shape.

First thing, and in my opinion the most important thing, is that we are no longer in an environment where Democrats poll poorly, but still perform well in swing races, which was the post-Dobbs environment. Democrats have seen universal polling improvements.

We are now seeing the polling advantage I predicted a few weeks ago when I suggested that the switch to Harris would permanently and significantly alter the fundamentals which up to then, continually favored Trump. 👇

Because the various forecast models rely so heavily on polling, the polling improvements have also led to forecast improvements, with the race on its way to settling into a toss-up, advantage Harris environment. My expectation is the various forecast models will be somewhere around 60/40 Harris in September.