Keep Calm and Listen to the Signal

Polls are the Noise, Election Results are the Signal

source: https://split-ticket.org/2023/09/27/do-special-elections-mean-anything/

Folks,

I want to make something crystal clear right up front: the 2024 presidential election will be decided within roughly 7 swing states and will produce a very tight margin for the eventual winner.

The fact is from now, until Election Day, there is a 50/50 chance we lose, …