SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

A Reality-Based Assessment of Where Trump’s Power Grab Stands — and Where It’s Going

Americans have spent the past year arguing about whether Trump is “really” an authoritarian, whether he “really” intends to consolidate power, whether the institutions will “really” hold. What almost no one is doing is the one thing that citizens in backsliding democracies consistently fail to do in time:

Assess the threat honestly.

So let’s do that.

Not emotionally. Not catastrophically.

Historically.

Because if we’re going to make responsible decisions — as citizens, as families, as a country — we need to understand where the United States actually sits on the authoritarian risk timeline.

This essay isn’t a panic memo.

It’s a map.

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1. The United States Is No Longer a Fully Consolidated Democracy

To understand the present, we have to borrow language from political science — the field that studies how democracies degrade.

We are not living in 1938 Germany.

We’re not living in 1973 Chile.

We’re not even living in post-coup Turkey.

We are living in what scholars call:

Competitive Authoritarianism (Pre-Consolidation Phase)

That’s the same zone Hungary entered under Orbán in 2011–2014, the same period Poland passed through in 2016–2018, and the same window Russia stood in before the NTV media purge in 2000–2003.

Competitive authoritarianism means:

• Elections still happen, but the playing field is tilted.

• Institutions still exist, but they’re slowly being de-fanged.

• Courts still operate, but selectively and under pressure.

• Journalists still publish, but access is restricted.

• Dissent is legal, but increasingly discouraged or punished through proxies.

It’s not dictatorship.

It’s the part before dictatorship — the part everyone thinks will last forever.

It never does.

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2. So Where Are We Right Now?

Let’s run the current moment through the authoritarian indicators political scientists use worldwide.

Authoritarian Indicator 1: Purging the Civil Service

Already happening.

Career DOJ staff, military personnel, and federal employees who won’t play ball are being investigated, reassigned, forced out, or replaced with loyalists.

Authoritarian Indicator 2: Politicization of Federal Law Enforcement

We’re already here.

There is effectively zero likelihood the Trump DOJ would prosecute a Trump ally — and articles from resigning DOJ employees confirm political interference.

Authoritarian Indicator 3: Selective Impunity

Actively happening.

Trump has pardoned or released multiple co-conspirators.

Selective impunity is the foundation of every authoritarian legal system.

Authoritarian Indicator 4: Retaliatory Investigations

Happening now.

Opponents, prosecutors, state AGs — all targets.

Authoritarian Indicator 5: Attacks on Independent Media Access

The Pentagon loyalty-pledge press fiasco.

When the mainstream press refused to sign what was essentially a loyalty oath, they were locked out.

This is a significant escalation.

Authoritarian Indicator 6: Erosion of Judicial Independence

In progress, not complete.

Courts are still issuing adverse rulings.

This is one of the last remaining guardrails.

Authoritarian Indicator 7: Freedom of Movement

Not yet restricted.

Historically, once movement is controlled, it’s too late.

Authoritarian Indicator 8: Arrests of Journalists

Not yet.

This is the red line in every era.

If the U.S. crosses it, the game changes.

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3. Americans Always Think They’ll Recognize the “Moment”

They won’t.

German Jews in 1933 didn’t.

Russians in 2000 didn’t.

Hungarians in 2011 didn’t.

Venezuelans in 2006 didn’t.

The moment when people should leave is always earlier than the moment they do leave.

That’s because human beings tell themselves:

“It won’t get worse.”

“It won’t affect me.”

“The institutions will hold.”

History laughs at this every time.

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4. So Should You Stay or Should You Go?

This isn’t defeatism.

This is responsible citizenship.

Here’s the honest assessment:

We are not at the “flee the country” moment.

Not yet.

But are we at the “build a contingency plan” moment?

Absolutely.

We are in the zone where:

• Democracy is weakened but not dead

• Institutions are stressed but not collapsed

• Free press is under attack but still functioning

• Elections still matter and are our best hope out of this

• Travel is still unrestricted

• States can still resist federal overreach

• Civil society still operates

This is the time when resistance is effective.

This is the moment when your voice matters most.

We can still be masters of our America’s fate.

But this is also the moment when responsible adults quietly:

• update their passports

• map out international employment options

• review relocation possibilities

• keep one eye on the red-line indicators

Not because leaving is imminent, but because leaving too late is irreversible.

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5. The Real Red Lines

History is clear:

Once the government begins arresting major journalists or criminalizing dissent, the window begins to close fast.

That is the point when:

• exits become limited

• wealth transfers are restricted

• travel can be monitored or halted

• international visas become harder

• federal loyalty tests expand

• critical voices disappear

That is the moment people must choose — and choose quickly.

We’re not there yet.

But we’re closer than anyone wants to admit.

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6. Conclusion: We Have to Fight For the Right to Party

America has not fallen.

But it is no longer safe to pretend this is normal democratic turbulence.

The question “Should I stay or should I go?” isn’t melodramatic.

It’s what every intellectually honest person living in a backsliding democracy eventually has to ask.

The answer — for now — is:

Stay. Fight. Prepare.

Democracy isn’t dead.

But it won’t survive on autopilot.