We're Deep in the Shit Now
The Only Way to Win the Shutdown Was Not to Play
The Shutdown Power Grab
The government is shut down. That alone is bad enough, but hereâs the kicker: Trump and his people have already said out loud that theyâre going to redefine what âessentialâ means. Under normal shutdown rules, the basics keep going: Social Security checks, veteransâ benefits, air traffic control, border patrol, some law enforcement. Everyone else gets furloughed. Itâs disruptive, but itâs not supposed to be apocalyptic.
But this isnât a normal shutdown. Trump isnât Ted Cruz throwing a tantrum in 2013 or the Freedom Caucus in 2018 trying to leverage a short-term crisis. He doesnât want the government back open. He wants it broken. And a shutdown is the perfect crowbar.
And just like with Gretchen Whitmer, Trump set a trap for Schumer and Jeffries walked right in.
I have a hard time imagining Nancy Pelosi allowing this shot.
The Power of âEssentialâ
By law, the presidentâs administration decides whoâs essential and who isnât. Thatâs usually treated as a bureaucratic decision. But now itâs political.
Trumpâs OMB director has already bragged that theyâre rewriting the definitions. That means agencies that used to be protected during a shutdown could suddenly go dark.
Imagine if civil rights investigators at DOJ are declared ânon-essential.â Or if climate scientists at NOAA are sent home right before hurricane season. Or if federal prosecutors chasing political corruption cases find their offices âclosed until further notice.â
In other words: the power to define âessentialâ is the power to cripple whole parts of government. Not temporarily. Strategically.
What Could Be Shut Down
Education Department: Already planning to furlough nearly 90% of staff. That means new student loans, civil rights enforcement, and grant-making all grind to a halt. You might still get your Pell Grant checkâeventuallyâbut donât expect anyone to answer a question or approve a new program.
Infrastructure: The headline was $18 billion yanked from New York Cityâs transit projects. Thatâs not just punitive; itâs precedent. If Trump can choke off money for the Hudson Tunnel, he can choke off funds for bridges in Michigan, rail projects in Arizona, port upgrades in Georgia. All he has to do is call them ânon-essential.â
Health & Human Services: Research labs, public health monitoring, opioid treatment grantsâgone. We saw during COVID how much difference federal coordination makes. With those agencies shuttered, states are on their own.
Environmental Protection: The EPA is usually one of the first to close its doors in a shutdown. That means no inspections, no enforcement, no climate data. Industries get a free pass. Polluters have open season.
Regulatory Oversight: Think SEC, FTC, NLRB. If the cops on Wall Street are all on furlough, fraudsters and corporate bad actors know theyâve got a green light. Same for union-busting companies or mergers that should face scrutiny.
Federal Courts: Criminal cases tied to public safety continue, but civil litigationâincluding suits against Trump and his alliesâcan stall. The longer the shutdown, the thinner the court system stretches.
What Canât Be Stopped (For Now)
Some things will keep running. Social Security checks. Medicare reimbursements. Active-duty military. Border patrol. Air traffic control. Trump knows cutting those would make him the villain with his own voters, so they stay safe. He can even look magnanimous: âI protected veterans.â But everything else is fair game.
New Tricks, New Risks
Whatâs different here is intent. Past shutdowns were leverage playsâpain inflicted to get the other side to fold. This one is sabotage. Trump has already tried to impound or freeze funding Congress appropriated. Courts have pushed back, but with the government shuttered, enforcement of those rulings gets harder. Whoâs left working to process the court orders? Whoâs there to move money once a judge says ârelease the fundsâ? If the staff are furloughed, the win on paper doesnât translate into reality.
Trump needed this shut down and I donât see him squandering it.
Thereâs also the mass layoff play. OMB has told agencies to prepare for reductions in force. Normally, furloughs end when Congress funds the government again. But if Trump turns temporary furloughs into permanent layoffs, thatâs a structural gutting of the federal workforce. Entire agencies could come back online crippled, short-staffed, unable to recover. Thatâs not a shutdownâitâs demolition.
Why It Matters
People think of shutdowns as abstractâD.C. gridlock, some furloughed workers, maybe a closed monument. But this one is a chance for Trump to redraw the map of government. To decide which functions live and which functions die. Imagine a future where civil rights enforcement, climate action, antitrust law, public health researchâall wither because in October 2025 someone decided they were ânon-essential.â
And hereâs the kicker: the power to reopen the government sits in one place. The Oval Office. Trump can hold it closed as long as he wants, knowing that the longer it drags, the weaker the machinery gets. Courts can yell. Congress can complain. But without appropriations flowing, itâs Trump who decides what counts as essential America, and what doesnât.
The Bottom Line
Shutdowns were once a nuisance. Now, in Trumpâs hands, theyâre a weapon. He doesnât want the government to function. He wants to prove it canât. Every day the lights stay off, the rot deepens. Every agency starved of staff and money is another institution easier to crush, easier to privatize, easier to politicize.
This isnât Ted Cruzâs little Green Eggs and Ham tantrum and Republicans hold all the leverage.
Iâm accustomed to seeing things the way you see them, Rachel. But on this one, we have a little variance.
Looking at this solely in the context of the 2026 midterms, the Democratic Party is probably not going get any more chances to do what it is able to do right now, in terms of defining itself and positioning itself.
The Democratic Party has been stigmatized by negative branding on leadership. One major reason that voters shy away from Democrats, regardless of their potential alignment on policy preferences, is the sense the Democrats are unreliable leaders, that they canât be counted on to step up when the chips are down. The sense that they will equivocate, prevaricate, and resort to appeasement in the face of enemies who would do Americans harm. The only way, and I mean the *only* way, for the Democratic Party to rebrand itself on this count is to do the opposite, conspicuously. To take bold, defiant action, and to both *tell* the electorate, and to *show* them, that bullying doesnât work on them. To demonstrate that they are guided by their own north star, rather than by aversion to conflict.
And after nine months of Democrats telling the whole world that thereâs virtually nothing they can do legislatively, this is their shot. And they have to shoot. Itâs true that they hold relatively few cards, but they hold this one.
Speaking as a furloughed fed myself, the Dems made the right decision. If the Heritage creeps are going to take this opportunity to fire us all, well, they were going to do that anyway.
If the continuation of a shutdown causes massive pain and disruption to the American people, these are opportunities for Democrats to demonstrate that this is what America is like when Republican extremist destroy government. Let voters feel the pain of losses now, rather than sleepwalking through another election season full of warnings by Democrats, that they donât believe, about how bad itâs about to get. Instead, let them experience how bad itâs going to get, ahead of the decision date, and allow them to make that decision on whether they want more of that or not. âThis government shutdown is your future, if you donât elect people who actually believe in what government can do.â
Moreover, as a purely practical matter, all the terrible things that this regime wants to do to people like us, and to people around the world, all requires federal budget dollars to accomplish. And if the government isnât funded, he can do dramatically less of it. And if thatâs all we can hope for, well, I will take it. Frankly, letâs just keep the shutdown going until November 2026. And see if voters are ready for a change then.
This is defcon four. This is American democracyâs existential gut check. This is the moment that weâve needed to rise to, and so far have failed.
Doc, I love ya, but I gotta ask-- does anyone think TACO Don wouldn't have found a different path to do all those things you mention? Now by him, I actually mean Stormtrooper Miller, Field Marshal Vought and the rest of the Grand Dragons, but face it. It. Was. Going. To. Happen. Anyway. It has been happening, sometimes multiple items a day. But the Dem Rank and File are demoralized because the Idiots in Charge keep yelling at us that THEY can't do anything but WE must fight back! Leading from behind has become their love language. I have my pitchfork and bricks ready. But somebody's got to lead the charge!