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While they may not be going door-to-door, I understand Charlie Kirk is organizing young men on college campuses very effectively. That's like knocking on many doors at once, plus perhaps establishing activist groups in the process. Worth keeping an eye on. The gender gap is significant.

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author

This is the subject of next weeks column

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I live in battleground AZ and have been visited at my home twice by Harris volunteers. I have not seen anyone from Traitor Trump’s side!

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founding

Thanks so much!!

Even though you and Simon Rosenberg constantly remind me to “ worry less and do more” , the recent NY Times poll has EVERYONE depressed again … even though I’m pretty sure new voter registrants haven’t been included in the LV models —yet — ( & certainly not the registered voter models).

And if one more (male) pundit says “ Dobbs is #9 on the important list” I know women are not just engaged - they’re enraged!!

Thanks!

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Rachel and Simon are spot on. The preeminent pollster, based on an unbelievably accurate track record, is racetothewh.com. I ignore outlier polls and the organizations that post them, because of the confidence I have in racetothewh.com

We’ve nothing to be concerned about as far as the National Election is concerned but the Senate. Harris will “Walz” across the finish line. The House will be decidedly Democratic,with a probable 221 Dems. Only concern is with John Tester in Montana. Looks like it’ll be a 51-49 Republican majority, if the polling remains the same. So all in all mostly good news.

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Someone’s trolls - Trump’s? Russia’s? Elon’s? - know that outsourcing the field operation is a problem. They’ve been inundating the posts re no door knocking, etc with responses trying to convince someone that it isn’t a problem.

It's a problem. I’m glad you filled us in on even more background.

#ETTD, Republicans

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In-person canvassing is really tough in Florida or at least South Florida where it's too hot for those of us who are older volunteers. I did it a lot when I was in my 40s and it was a very rewarding experience and the weather wasn't as hot. Now the heat is brutal and I'm in my seventies. It's hard to get people to go door to door. I keep urging people to take their kids. Any data on postcarding? People are really willing to postcard.

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Dr. B:

What are your thoughts about the impact of partisan pollsters (especially on the right) impacting polling aggregators such as 538? In 2022, it seems that this artificial impression was part of the "Red Wave" concept that distracted Blue donors from winnable races. Thanks for all that you do.

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